Pitch Fest Bali 2026
Diversified Alpha.
Two engines, zero overlap.
Nicholas Levenstein & Company runs two uncorrelated crypto return streams: CMFDH II, a hedged BTC accumulation strategy that realizes quarterly, and Shadow Edge, a daily edge-capture engine on Polymarket.
Both publish their positions live to the web. This deck updates itself — press Update live data above.
Agenda
What you'll see in three minutes
The problem
Crypto exposure is all-or-nothing
Hold spot
Full upside — and full 60–80% drawdowns. Most allocators can't hold through them, so they sell the bottom.
Hold stablecoins
No drawdowns — and no participation. Yield alone doesn't justify the counterparty and regulatory risk.
What's missing
Strategies engineered for asymmetry: keep compounding in flat and falling markets, accept a known cost in strong rallies — and prove it with live, verifiable positions rather than a backtest PDF.
That asymmetry is what both of our engines are built to deliver, in two different markets, on two different clocks.
The firm
Nicholas Levenstein & Company
- Georgian joint-stock company operating a segregated-accounts model — each investor's capital sits in their own account, visible to them at all times.
- Trading crypto derivatives on Deribit since July 2019 across the CMFDH strategy family.
- Radical transparency: live positions, account state, and tactics are published on the open web — not in a quarterly letter.
Engine one · realizes quarterly
CMFDH II — hedged BTC accumulation
- A structural ½ hedge via short futures sits against the BTC balance at all times.
- In flat or declining markets the hedge generates income — the account accumulates BTC and dollars while spot holders tread water or bleed.
- In strong rallies the hedge costs profit: participation is capped. That is the deliberate price of the asymmetry, not a side effect.
- Gains are realized by end of each quarter.
What we don't claim
CMFDH II does not offer full upside participation. If you want pure beta, buy spot. If you want downside-protected compounding with a known rally cost, this is the engine.
Verify it yourself
Live positions and tactics: levenstein.net/cmfdh-ii-current-status-and-tactics
CMFDH II — the hedge, right now
These numbers are read directly from the Deribit account via our public API — the same feed our investors watch. No screenshots, no quarter-old factsheets.
Engine two · realizes daily
Shadow Edge — priced risk, mispriced markets
- Builds its own fair value for Polymarket's daily BTC/ETH price markets from the Deribit options surface.
- Acts only when the market disagrees by ≥5% and the model's win probability exceeds 51%. No edge, no trade.
- Positions resolve daily — capital recycles every 24 hours, in any volatility regime, up market or down.
- Currently in live pilot at deliberately small size while the audit-grade track record builds.
Pedigree
Built by the team behind CMFDH-I's 8.9× run. Early live results are strong but measured in weeks, not years — we say so plainly, and we publish every position.
Verify it yourself
Methodology and live scanner: levenstein.net/polymarketinfo
Shadow Edge — today's book
| Market | Side | Entry ¢ | Now ¢ | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
Pilot-phase sizing is intentionally small; the point is the verifiable, position-by-position record — not the dollar count yet.
Portfolio logic
Two clocks, two venues, one discipline
CMFDH II
Deribit futures & options · quarterly realization · earns most in flat and falling markets · BTC-denominated compounding.
Shadow Edge
Polymarket prediction markets · daily realization · earns from mispricing in any direction · USD-denominated recycling.
Different return drivers, different settlement cycles, different venues. When one engine is out of season, the other isn't — that is the Diversified Alpha thesis in one sentence.
And both are held to the same standard: if it isn't visible live on the open web, it doesn't count.
The ask
Watch us live, then talk to us
- Both strategies are opening to qualified investors through 2026 under the firm's segregated-accounts model.
- Start by watching the live pages for a week — the record updates whether or not we're in the room.
- Then reach us via the contact form at levenstein.net.
Live pages: CMFDH II status & tactics · Shadow Edge / Polymarket
Dear investor — the numbers on slides 6 and 8 changed while you
were reading this.
Sincerely, Nicholas Levenstein
This presentation is informational only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or investment product in any jurisdiction. Nicholas Levenstein & Company operates under Georgian law using a segregated-accounts model and is not registered with the U.S. SEC. Figures marked "live" are unaudited raw account data; historical figures are net of fees with an independent audit in progress. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Digital-asset strategies involve substantial risk of loss.