Covered-Call Plans to Maximize BTC by Dec 31, 2025

Covered-Call Plans to Maximize BTC by Dec 31, 2025

Table of Contents
  1. Setup & Constraints
  2. Approach A — Weekly Theta (Assistant)
  3. Approach B — Grok Proposal
  4. Approach C — Gemini Proposal
  5. Key Differences & Implications
  6. Concise Summary

1) Setup & Constraints

  • Objective: Maximize BTC by 12/31/2025 while keeping the short-futures crash hedge.
  • Spot reference: ~115,290.
  • Holdings: 11.53 BTC.
  • Short futures: BTC-26DEC25, delta ≈ −5.609 BTC (kept).
  • Open short calls: 31OCT25 120k C (−1), 7NOV25 118k C (−1), 7NOV25 122k C (−1).
  • Coverage rule: Every new call must be fully covered by BTC that is not earmarked for the short futures; target ≈ 0.20Δ (~80% OTM probability).
  • Available covered-call capacity now: 11.53 − 5.609 − 3 ≈ 2.921 BTC ⇒ practically 2 more fully covered calls immediately.

2) Approach A — Weekly Theta (Assistant)

Trades Now

ActionInstrumentQtyDeltaEst. Bid (BTC)Rationale
SELL BTC-31OCT25-120000-C 2 ~0.19 ~0.004 Nearest weekly ~0.20Δ; fast theta; roll each Friday to next ~0.20Δ
Expected near-term premium: ~0.008 BTC this week; repeat weekly. Optional blend: replace one weekly with BTC-26DEC25-138000-C (Δ~0.21, bid ~0.019 BTC) for an immediate ~0.023 BTC and a quarter-end anchor.

Risk & Rules

  • Remain fully covered (no change to crash hedge).
  • Roll if Δ > 0.30 or spot <~3% from strike; keep targeting ~0.20Δ.
  • Benefit: usually higher total BTC via frequent re-selling of time decay.

3) Approach B — Grok Proposal

ActionInstrumentQtyDeltaBid (BTC)Comment
SELL BTC-26DEC25-125000-C 2 ~0.21 ~0.010 Long-dated, quarter-end exposure, modest yield
SELL BTC-14NOV25-125000-C 2 ~0.21 ~0.010 Mid-dated, medium yield
Total new premium ≈ 0.04 BTC.

4) Approach C — Gemini Proposal

ActionInstrumentQtyDeltaBid (BTC)Comment
SELL BTC-14NOV25-124000-C 5.921 ~0.24 (stated) ~0.0175 Single, larger short dated position for higher one-shot premium
Projected premium: ≈ 0.1036 BTC (if 5.921 contracts are allowed and fully covered).

5) Key Differences & Implications

Dimension Approach A (Assistant) Approach B (Grok) Approach C (Gemini)
Primary Style Short-dated weekly rolls (~0.20Δ) Mix of mid + long dated (~0.20Δ) Single mid-dated sale, larger size
Collateral Accounting Respects existing 3 short calls → only 2 new calls now Also within 2-call capacity Assumes 5.921 calls available (ignores 3 open shorts) → risks exceeding fully-covered limit
Immediate Premium (illustrative) ~0.008 BTC (weekly only) or ~0.023 BTC (blend with Dec call) ~0.04 BTC ~0.1036 BTC (if size allowed/covered)
Annualized Yield High (weekly compounding, often > long-dated) Moderate (duration drag) Moderate-high for the specific trade, but not compounded
Upside Cap Risk Low-to-moderate; strikes reset weekly farther OTM Moderate; Dec call caps a chunk through quarter end Moderate; one strike can cap more BTC if size is large
Operational Load Weekly attention (rolls) Light-to-moderate Light (one position)
Most material difference: collateral math. With 11.53 BTC, −5.609 BTC futures, and 3 existing short calls, you have ≈2.921 BTC of free cover → practically 2 new calls today. Selling ~5.9 calls (as in Gemini) would breach your “infinite liquidation price” rule unless you first close some existing shorts or add BTC.

6) Concise Summary

  • If you want the highest expected BTC over multiple weeks: choose Approach A (weekly ~0.20Δ rolls). Add 2× 31OCT 120kC now; roll each Friday. Optional: swap one weekly for 26DEC 138kC for a quick ~0.023 BTC today.
  • If you prefer fewer rolls and locking a portion to year-end: choose Approach B (Grok) — 2× 14NOV 125kC + 2× 26DEC 125kC. Lower compounding but simple.
  • If you pursue Gemini’s idea: first ensure you truly have coverage for ~6 calls (you don’t under current positions). You’d need to close some existing shorts or add BTC to keep liquidation risk infinite.